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IMPEACHMENT E RENUNCIA: IMPEACHMENT AND DISCLAIMS - REPUBLISHED TODAY THIS...
IMPEACHMENT E RENUNCIA: IMPEACHMENT AND DISCLAIMS - REPUBLISHED TODAY THIS...: Impeachment AND DISCLAIMS Monday, March 2, 2015 Impeachment AND WAIVE ONE OF TWO IS INEVITABLE A BATTLE AGAINST Notica AND NEWS ON POLI...
IMPEACHMENT AND DISCLAIMS - REPUBLISHED TODAY THIS ARTICLE OF MARCG, 2015, JUST TO SHOW HOW BAD IS THEA SITUATION
Impeachment AND DISCLAIMS
Monday, March 2, 2015
Impeachment AND WAIVE ONE OF TWO IS INEVITABLE
A BATTLE AGAINST Notica AND NEWS ON POLITICAL STABILITY ENVIRONMENT UNDER THE DEMOCRATIC NORMAL, WITH RESPECT TO SOLUTIONS APPLICATION REQUIRED THE RESTORATION OF THE PEOPLE'S CONFIDENCE IN RELATION TO ITS RULERS AND GROWTH RESUMPTION
This analysis comes as a result of government news implant seeking to destabilize the environment impeachment / resignation necessary that the government itself created and became inevitable.
THE five reasons given and published on msn by Mr. Peter Hakim, are not entitled to the history of Brazil, and how in certain circumstances, the right to resume normal becomes inevitable solution of impeachment / resignation.
The first question concerns the congressional support / opposition-situation? in relation to being permeable or reflex to the new policy framework environment, arising from the need to providence impeachment / resignation.
Before moving on the topic, we have to anticipate being natural and blindingly obvious be in this moment of crisis, in addition to generating news that do not concern the framework of reality for both parties involved, making believe the greater the effect of this or that event both for change as in maintaining the framework, and this bet, dismisses as irrelevant adiposity, keeping the need in the concentration of factors that influence and will flow into the maintenance of the regime or change necessarily occur.
The fact that Brazilian politicians are permeable or reflections politics of course changes from the very inertia feature in approving legislation: who is "in accordance remains as is," and everything remained as it is resulting which resulted, planted wind , seeking to pick flowers, which do not come to fruition.
The permeability factor is the lack of necessary virtues of training of politicians who run continuously behind the podium and spotlight when they appear to result in votes and popular support.
Hence, Mr. Peter analysis does not fit the historical moments the country through popular movements, even the messy, when faced with an unswerving reality, of: ENOUGH, ENOUGH, can not stand MORE !!!, What has not doubt time that politicians realize that this is the will of the people will become permeable and even defenders change settings impeachment / needed change.
In the same context, international scenarios quickly adjust to the new, from the environment legislated created it and has the first commitments to maintain order, and, what is more important, the credibility arising from new forms of surveillance withdraw the practice procurement figure of unwanted agents and unfair prices.
Faced with this fact, what is missing is very little, but not this government that will have the credibility to implement preventive regime to replace the scandals that descredibilizaram the Government inexorably removing the oxygen necessary to maintain public life.
Mr. Peter, even within the democratic system has the right to defend his point of view, done a huge disservice institutions to generate more performative and scientific analysis devoid of information, ignore or put aside what happened in regime change ranging from the proclamation of the republic, the government's first step Getulio, change 64 system, return to democracy, and the more guard relevance to this analysis, the very fall of Collor, who, long before the social movements take account of the national feeling of the streets that formed the archetype scanned and engineered the change was the unremovable regime change as it did now.
It is no longer repeat previous and unsuccessful movements, it is the popular intolerability compared to excesses and desgovernos in framework that trust does not takes more, the couple government / population had its break broken trust by the fact that not only the government was being caught cheating as mocking the betrayed spouse for his performance in bed, which becomes unacceptable.
Mr. Peter movement will thrive despite their thought otherwise, and a little more research and science refer to a more detailed analysis of the lack of awareness and sense of respect the people involved, the American of which Mr. Peter is originates, which does not allow and does not accept this type of conduct and Brazil, which was analyzed as being unable to organize and take the reins of unbridled horse that made this government, Mr. see and can apologize to the United States and Latin America by the lack of discretion.
Nothing will stop the people unless the government has the decency to resign, to ensure the popular memory statesman reference saved who, as a public figure has the humility to be of service and help to arrogate that did this or that in the benefit of the population because the public policies that have never been performed with own resources only with money and order the population and is this profile that the population requires to future representatives of the Nation
Annex: Five pitiable points on msn today:
The number of problems faced by President Dilma Rousseff at the start of his second term has been nominated by some as a threat signal to your government.
Last week, a blog published in the British newspaper's website Financial Times listed 10 reasons to believe that Dilma could be impeached, including the corruption investigations in Petrobras, the down economy, the crisis in the supply of water and energy and the lowest support in Congress.
However, for political scientists consulted by BBC Brazil, this is not realistic and, despite the problems, there is currently no reason to consider that Dilma not finish his term.
Below six reasons why Brazilianists consider unlikely impeachment proceedings in Brazil:
1 - So far, there is no basis for impeachment
For analysts interviewed by BBC Brazil, despite the serious problems faced by the government, it is not clear what would be the basis for impeachment proceedings.
"There are tensions within the government, tensions between Lula (former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva) and Dilma, between the PT and (the new Minister of Finance) Joaquim Levy. Polarization in Brazil is getting very strong, between PT and the opposition, between Congress and the president, "enumerates Peter Hakim, president emeritus of political analysis institute Inter-American Dialogue in Washington.
"But the question I have is how the impeachment process would be initiated, what would be the basis for impeachment," he asks.
According to Hakim, yet there seems to be nothing that can trigger an impeachment process. He points out that charges of "incompetence", by itself, is no reason for impeachment.
Political scientist Riordan Roett, director of the study program in Latin America Johns Hopkins University in Washington, says that in the United States impeachment threat is usually also mentioned frequently.
"The impeachment is never out of the question. The conservatives of the Tea Party are always talking about impeachment in Congress, but obviously this will not happen," compares.
"(In Brazil) I think it's too early to even think about the possibility of a serious impeachment process."
2 - There Dilma involvement of evidence in Petrobras scandal
The corruption scandal at Petrobras, which has caused the lowering of the company's score for Moody's credit rating agency, is considered by Hakim the main problem faced by Dilma right now.
But he and other analysts point out that nothing indicates that the President - who headed the Board of directors between 2003 and 2010 - have had some kind of involvement or knew of cases of corruption.
"To date, there is no evidence that Dilma is guilty of nothing but bad administration (in the case of Petrobras)," says political scientist Matthew Taylor, a researcher at the Brazil Institute of the Woodrow Wilson Center organ and professor at American University, in Washington.
Taylor notes that, as in Mensalão scandal many of the most skeptical members of the opposition said at the time that the then president Lula should know what happened in the case of Petrobras is possible that many say the same of Dilma, their ties with company were so narrow that she should know the corruption scheme.
"But in a large organization like this, it is quite plausible that it simply has not investigated more deeply what could be happening," he says.
"So far there is no suggestion in the documents that we know that Dilma is guilty of any criminal behavior," says Taylor.
3 - The opposition is not interested in a process of impeachment
According to analysts polled by BBC Brazil, the opposition would not be able nor interested in carrying forward an impeachment process.
"I do not think the PSDB would have much to gain. Also, need the support of the PMDB and other parties in the government coalition. And, frankly, none of these parties would like to see Dilma suffering impeachment," says Taylor.
"They have a lot to gain from a weakened Dilma," he says. "It might be better for the opposition simply leave Dilma steeped in crisis and let her take the tough austerity measures and be responsible for them."
4 - Support in Congress
Dilma faces difficulties in its relationship with Congress and with the allied base itself, at a time when the PT and the PMDB, despite the higher benches, lost seats in the last elections, which were also marked by further fragmentation of Congress .
"One of the crucial issues for Dilma is to fight against the opposition that is in Congress the fiscal adjustment plan. But it is in a weakened position because it is not popular, the PT has fewer members in Congress, there are smaller parties' lists Roett.
Despite the difficulties, analysts point out that Rousseff's support structure is much stronger than that of former President Fernando Collor de Mello impeachment target in 1992.
"Collor was implementing policies that were somehow radicals, which went against the majority of voters, and doing this in a context in which his party had less than 3% of the Congress," says Taylor
5 - Difficulties in Latin America
The evaluation of analysts is that, although serious, the current problems are not unique to Brazil. Many Latin American countries also face a period of scandals and falling economy.
"It's not as if Brazil were alone," says Hakim.
He cites the cases of Mexico, Venezuela, Peru, Chile and Argentina, where presidents also go through a time of low popularity.
"If in Brazil inflation reaches 7.3% in the last 12 months in Argentina is around 40%, and in Venezuela close to 70%," says Hakim.
"Investor confidence is low throughout Latin America."
Exaggeration
For Hakim, a certain exaggeration when talking about the possibility of impeachment of Rousseff.
"No one spoke in impeachment of Fernando Henrique Cardoso because of the blackout crisis. Nobody talked about impeachment of Lula because of Mensalão" he recalls.
The analyst acknowledges that Dilma is facing problems on several fronts, but claims that these problems are not uncommon in government with the economy down.
"Remember when everyone was talking that Brazil was a rocket toward the moon, no one held Brazil? That was dramatically exaggerated. Now the supposed disaster facing Brazil is also being overdone. It may be about to face some turbulence, but does not compare to the situation in Argentina or Venezuela, "said Hakim.
Taylor says the Petrobras scandal leaves "cautiously optimistic."
"When you think of Brazil and the experiences in Latin America, how many other countries you would hold some of the most important business and consider the possibility of holding some of the most important politicians? And even if I did not finding a realistic scenario, the very contemplation impeachment of a valid way institutionally. This all points to the strength of Brazilian democracy, not weakness. "
Brazil, February 28, 2015
HÉLIO BARRETO DOS SANTOS SON
OAB SC 7487 DF 36606 OAPT 53040C
Posted by Helio Barreto at 06:52 No comentari
Monday, March 2, 2015
Impeachment AND WAIVE ONE OF TWO IS INEVITABLE
A BATTLE AGAINST Notica AND NEWS ON POLITICAL STABILITY ENVIRONMENT UNDER THE DEMOCRATIC NORMAL, WITH RESPECT TO SOLUTIONS APPLICATION REQUIRED THE RESTORATION OF THE PEOPLE'S CONFIDENCE IN RELATION TO ITS RULERS AND GROWTH RESUMPTION
This analysis comes as a result of government news implant seeking to destabilize the environment impeachment / resignation necessary that the government itself created and became inevitable.
THE five reasons given and published on msn by Mr. Peter Hakim, are not entitled to the history of Brazil, and how in certain circumstances, the right to resume normal becomes inevitable solution of impeachment / resignation.
The first question concerns the congressional support / opposition-situation? in relation to being permeable or reflex to the new policy framework environment, arising from the need to providence impeachment / resignation.
Before moving on the topic, we have to anticipate being natural and blindingly obvious be in this moment of crisis, in addition to generating news that do not concern the framework of reality for both parties involved, making believe the greater the effect of this or that event both for change as in maintaining the framework, and this bet, dismisses as irrelevant adiposity, keeping the need in the concentration of factors that influence and will flow into the maintenance of the regime or change necessarily occur.
The fact that Brazilian politicians are permeable or reflections politics of course changes from the very inertia feature in approving legislation: who is "in accordance remains as is," and everything remained as it is resulting which resulted, planted wind , seeking to pick flowers, which do not come to fruition.
The permeability factor is the lack of necessary virtues of training of politicians who run continuously behind the podium and spotlight when they appear to result in votes and popular support.
Hence, Mr. Peter analysis does not fit the historical moments the country through popular movements, even the messy, when faced with an unswerving reality, of: ENOUGH, ENOUGH, can not stand MORE !!!, What has not doubt time that politicians realize that this is the will of the people will become permeable and even defenders change settings impeachment / needed change.
In the same context, international scenarios quickly adjust to the new, from the environment legislated created it and has the first commitments to maintain order, and, what is more important, the credibility arising from new forms of surveillance withdraw the practice procurement figure of unwanted agents and unfair prices.
Faced with this fact, what is missing is very little, but not this government that will have the credibility to implement preventive regime to replace the scandals that descredibilizaram the Government inexorably removing the oxygen necessary to maintain public life.
Mr. Peter, even within the democratic system has the right to defend his point of view, done a huge disservice institutions to generate more performative and scientific analysis devoid of information, ignore or put aside what happened in regime change ranging from the proclamation of the republic, the government's first step Getulio, change 64 system, return to democracy, and the more guard relevance to this analysis, the very fall of Collor, who, long before the social movements take account of the national feeling of the streets that formed the archetype scanned and engineered the change was the unremovable regime change as it did now.
It is no longer repeat previous and unsuccessful movements, it is the popular intolerability compared to excesses and desgovernos in framework that trust does not takes more, the couple government / population had its break broken trust by the fact that not only the government was being caught cheating as mocking the betrayed spouse for his performance in bed, which becomes unacceptable.
Mr. Peter movement will thrive despite their thought otherwise, and a little more research and science refer to a more detailed analysis of the lack of awareness and sense of respect the people involved, the American of which Mr. Peter is originates, which does not allow and does not accept this type of conduct and Brazil, which was analyzed as being unable to organize and take the reins of unbridled horse that made this government, Mr. see and can apologize to the United States and Latin America by the lack of discretion.
Nothing will stop the people unless the government has the decency to resign, to ensure the popular memory statesman reference saved who, as a public figure has the humility to be of service and help to arrogate that did this or that in the benefit of the population because the public policies that have never been performed with own resources only with money and order the population and is this profile that the population requires to future representatives of the Nation
Annex: Five pitiable points on msn today:
The number of problems faced by President Dilma Rousseff at the start of his second term has been nominated by some as a threat signal to your government.
Last week, a blog published in the British newspaper's website Financial Times listed 10 reasons to believe that Dilma could be impeached, including the corruption investigations in Petrobras, the down economy, the crisis in the supply of water and energy and the lowest support in Congress.
However, for political scientists consulted by BBC Brazil, this is not realistic and, despite the problems, there is currently no reason to consider that Dilma not finish his term.
Below six reasons why Brazilianists consider unlikely impeachment proceedings in Brazil:
1 - So far, there is no basis for impeachment
For analysts interviewed by BBC Brazil, despite the serious problems faced by the government, it is not clear what would be the basis for impeachment proceedings.
"There are tensions within the government, tensions between Lula (former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva) and Dilma, between the PT and (the new Minister of Finance) Joaquim Levy. Polarization in Brazil is getting very strong, between PT and the opposition, between Congress and the president, "enumerates Peter Hakim, president emeritus of political analysis institute Inter-American Dialogue in Washington.
"But the question I have is how the impeachment process would be initiated, what would be the basis for impeachment," he asks.
According to Hakim, yet there seems to be nothing that can trigger an impeachment process. He points out that charges of "incompetence", by itself, is no reason for impeachment.
Political scientist Riordan Roett, director of the study program in Latin America Johns Hopkins University in Washington, says that in the United States impeachment threat is usually also mentioned frequently.
"The impeachment is never out of the question. The conservatives of the Tea Party are always talking about impeachment in Congress, but obviously this will not happen," compares.
"(In Brazil) I think it's too early to even think about the possibility of a serious impeachment process."
2 - There Dilma involvement of evidence in Petrobras scandal
The corruption scandal at Petrobras, which has caused the lowering of the company's score for Moody's credit rating agency, is considered by Hakim the main problem faced by Dilma right now.
But he and other analysts point out that nothing indicates that the President - who headed the Board of directors between 2003 and 2010 - have had some kind of involvement or knew of cases of corruption.
"To date, there is no evidence that Dilma is guilty of nothing but bad administration (in the case of Petrobras)," says political scientist Matthew Taylor, a researcher at the Brazil Institute of the Woodrow Wilson Center organ and professor at American University, in Washington.
Taylor notes that, as in Mensalão scandal many of the most skeptical members of the opposition said at the time that the then president Lula should know what happened in the case of Petrobras is possible that many say the same of Dilma, their ties with company were so narrow that she should know the corruption scheme.
"But in a large organization like this, it is quite plausible that it simply has not investigated more deeply what could be happening," he says.
"So far there is no suggestion in the documents that we know that Dilma is guilty of any criminal behavior," says Taylor.
3 - The opposition is not interested in a process of impeachment
According to analysts polled by BBC Brazil, the opposition would not be able nor interested in carrying forward an impeachment process.
"I do not think the PSDB would have much to gain. Also, need the support of the PMDB and other parties in the government coalition. And, frankly, none of these parties would like to see Dilma suffering impeachment," says Taylor.
"They have a lot to gain from a weakened Dilma," he says. "It might be better for the opposition simply leave Dilma steeped in crisis and let her take the tough austerity measures and be responsible for them."
4 - Support in Congress
Dilma faces difficulties in its relationship with Congress and with the allied base itself, at a time when the PT and the PMDB, despite the higher benches, lost seats in the last elections, which were also marked by further fragmentation of Congress .
"One of the crucial issues for Dilma is to fight against the opposition that is in Congress the fiscal adjustment plan. But it is in a weakened position because it is not popular, the PT has fewer members in Congress, there are smaller parties' lists Roett.
Despite the difficulties, analysts point out that Rousseff's support structure is much stronger than that of former President Fernando Collor de Mello impeachment target in 1992.
"Collor was implementing policies that were somehow radicals, which went against the majority of voters, and doing this in a context in which his party had less than 3% of the Congress," says Taylor
5 - Difficulties in Latin America
The evaluation of analysts is that, although serious, the current problems are not unique to Brazil. Many Latin American countries also face a period of scandals and falling economy.
"It's not as if Brazil were alone," says Hakim.
He cites the cases of Mexico, Venezuela, Peru, Chile and Argentina, where presidents also go through a time of low popularity.
"If in Brazil inflation reaches 7.3% in the last 12 months in Argentina is around 40%, and in Venezuela close to 70%," says Hakim.
"Investor confidence is low throughout Latin America."
Exaggeration
For Hakim, a certain exaggeration when talking about the possibility of impeachment of Rousseff.
"No one spoke in impeachment of Fernando Henrique Cardoso because of the blackout crisis. Nobody talked about impeachment of Lula because of Mensalão" he recalls.
The analyst acknowledges that Dilma is facing problems on several fronts, but claims that these problems are not uncommon in government with the economy down.
"Remember when everyone was talking that Brazil was a rocket toward the moon, no one held Brazil? That was dramatically exaggerated. Now the supposed disaster facing Brazil is also being overdone. It may be about to face some turbulence, but does not compare to the situation in Argentina or Venezuela, "said Hakim.
Taylor says the Petrobras scandal leaves "cautiously optimistic."
"When you think of Brazil and the experiences in Latin America, how many other countries you would hold some of the most important business and consider the possibility of holding some of the most important politicians? And even if I did not finding a realistic scenario, the very contemplation impeachment of a valid way institutionally. This all points to the strength of Brazilian democracy, not weakness. "
Brazil, February 28, 2015
HÉLIO BARRETO DOS SANTOS SON
OAB SC 7487 DF 36606 OAPT 53040C
Posted by Helio Barreto at 06:52 No comentari
segunda-feira, 2 de março de 2015
IMPEACHMENT E RENUNCIA UM DOS DOIS É INEVITÁVEL
A BATALHA DE NOTÍCA E
CONTRA NOTÍCIA NO AMBIENTE DE ESTABILIDADE POLÍTICA NO QUADRO DE NORMALIDADE
DEMOCRÁTICA, EM RELAÇÃO A APLICAÇÃO DE SOLUÇÕES NECESSÁRIAS A RESTAURAÇÃO DA
CONFIANÇA DO POVO EM RELAÇÃO AOS SEUS GOVERNANTES E RETOMADA DO CRESCIMENTO
Esta análise vem como decorrência de implante de notícia
governamental buscando desestabilizar o ambiente de impeachment/renúncia
necessário que o próprio governo criou e se tornou inevitável.
AS cinco razões apontadas e publicadas em msn pelo Sr. Peter
Hakim, não fazem jus a história do Brasil, e, de como em certas circunstâncias,
a bem de retomada da normalidade se faz inevitável a solução do
impeachment/renúncia.
A primeira questão diz respeito ao apoio do
Congresso/oposição-situação? em relação ao fato de ser permeável ou reflexa ao
ambiente de quadro político novo, decorrente da necessidade de providência de
impeachment/renúncia.
Antes de avançar no tema, temos que antever ser natural e
óbvio ululante estar neste momento de crise, além da geração de notícia que não
dizem respeito à realidade do quadro por ambas as partes envolvidas, fazendo
crer maior o efeito deste ou daquele evento tanto em favor da mudança quanto na
manutenção do quadro, e, que este aposto, desconsidera por não ser pertinente
adiposidades, mantendo-se a necessidade na concentração dos fatores que influem
e vão desaguar na manutenção do regime ou a mudança que necessariamente
ocorrerá.
O fato de políticos brasileiros serem permeáveis ou reflexos
a mudanças de curso da política decorre da própria característica de inércia na
aprovação de medidas legislativas: quem estiver “de acordo permanece como
está”, e tudo permaneceu como está resultando o que resultou, se plantou vento,
buscando colher flores, o que não se chegará a bom termo.
O fator permeabilidade, decorre da ausência de virtudes
necessárias de formação dos políticos que correm incessantemente atrás de
palanque e holofotes quando estes aparentem resultar em votos e apoio popular.
Daí que a análise do Sr.
Peter não se ajusta aos momentos históricos vividos pelo País através
dos movimentos populares, mesmo os desorganizados, quando se defronta com uma
realidade inarredável, a de: CHEGA,
BASTA, NÃO AGUENTAMOS MAIS!!!, O que não se tenha dúvida momento em que os
políticos perceberem ser esta a vontade da população se tornarão permeáveis e
até defensores dos ajustes de mudança impeachment/mudança necessário.
Neste mesmo contexto, os cenários internacionais rapidamente
se ajustarão ao novo, desde que o ambiente legislado o tenha criado e tenha
como compromissos primeiros a manutenção da ordem, e, o que é mais importante,
a credibilidade decorrente de novas formas de fiscalização de retirem da
prática de contratos públicos a figura dos agentes indesejáveis e preços
injustos.
Diante de tal fato, o que falta é muito pouco, todavia não
será este Governo que terá a credibilidade para implantar regime preventivo que
substitua os escândalos que descredibilizaram o Governo de forma inexorável
retirando o oxigênio necessário a manutenção da vida pública.
O Sr. Peter, ainda que dentro do regime democrático tenha o
direito de defender seu ponto de vista, prestou um enorme desserviço as instituições
ao gerar informação destituída de análise mais performática e científica,
desconhecer ou deixar de lado o que houve nas mudanças de regime envolvendo
desde a proclamação da república, a primeira etapa do governo Getúlio, a
mudança de regime de 64, retomada da democracia, e, o que mais guarda
pertinência a presente análise, a própria queda do Governo Collor, que, muito
antes dos movimentos sociais tomarem conta das ruas o sentimento nacional que
formou o arquétipo que esquadrinhou e arquitetou a mudança foi a de inafastável
mudança de regime tal como ocorreu agora.
Não se trata mais de repetição de movimentos anteriores e mal
sucedidos, se trata da insuportabilidade popular ante aos desmandos e
desgovernos, em quadro de que a confiança não se retoma mais, o casal
governo/população teve sua ruptura de confiança quebrada pelo fato que não só o
governo foi sendo pego traindo como zombando do cônjuge traído por sua
performance na cama, o que se torna inaceitável.
O movimento Sr. Peter vai prosperar apesar de seu pensamento
em contrário, e, um pouco mais de
pesquisa e ciência remetem a uma análise mais criteriosa da falta de ciência e
sentimento de respeito as populações envolvidas, a americana da qual o Sr.
Peter é originário, que não permite e não aceita este tipo de conduta e a
brasileira, que foi analisada, como sendo incapaz de se organizar e tomar a
rédea do cavalo desenfreado que se tornou este Governo, o Sr. verá e poderá se
desculpar com os Estados Unidos e América Latina pela falta de critério.
Nada deterá a população a não ser que o Governo tenha a
decência de renunciar, para garantir a memória popular a referência de
estadista guardada a quem, como figura pública tenha a humildade de estar a
serviço e deixar de se arrogar que fez isto ou aquilo em prol da população
porque as políticas públicas que executou nunca foram com recurso próprio
somente com o dinheiro e ordem da população e é este perfil que a população
exige aos futuros mandatários da Nação
Anexo: cinco pontos lastimáveis no msn de hoje:
A série de problemas enfrentados pela presidente Dilma Rousseff neste
início de segundo mandato já foi indicada por alguns como sinal de ameaça ao
seu governo.
Na semana passada, um blog publicado no site do jornal britânico Financial
Times listou 10 motivos para acreditar que Dilma poderia sofrer
impeachment, entre eles as investigações de corrupção na Petrobras, a economia
em baixa, a crise no abastecimento de água e energia e o menor apoio no
Congresso.
No entanto, para cientistas políticos consultados pela BBC Brasil, esse
não é um cenário realista e, apesar dos problemas, no momento não há razão para
considerar a possibilidade de que Dilma não termine seu mandato.
Abaixo, seis motivos pelos quais os brasilianistas consideram improvável
um processo de impeachment no Brasil:
1 – Até o momento, não há base para impeachment
Para os analistas entrevistados pela BBC Brasil, apesar dos graves
problemas enfrentados pelo governo, não está claro qual seria a base para um
processo de impeachment.
"Há tensões dentro do governo, tensão entre Lula (o ex-presidente
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva) e Dilma, entre o PT e (o novo ministro da Fazenda)
Joaquim Levy. A polarização no Brasil está ficando muito forte, entre o PT e a
oposição, entre o Congresso e a presidente", enumera Peter Hakim,
presidente emérito do instituto de análise política Inter-American Dialogue, em
Washington.
"Mas a pergunta que eu tenho é como o processo de impeachment seria
iniciado, qual seria a base para impeachment", questiona.
Segundo Hakim, até o momento não parece haver nada que possa desencadear
um processo de impeachment. Ele ressalta que acusações de "incompetência",
por si só, não são motivo para impeachment.
O cientista político Riordan Roett, diretor do programa de estudos da
América Latina da Universidade Johns Hopkins, em Washington, lembra que nos
Estados Unidos a ameaça de impeachment também costuma ser mencionada com
frequência.
"O impeachment nunca está fora de questão. Os conservadores do Tea
Party estão sempre falando em impeachment no Congresso americano, mas
obviamente isso não vai acontecer", compara.
"(No caso do Brasil) penso que é muito cedo para sequer pensar
sobre a possibilidade de um processo sério de impeachment."
2 – Não há evidências de envolvimento de Dilma no escândalo da Petrobras
O escândalo de corrupção na Petrobras, que já provocou o rebaixamento da
nota da empresa pela agência de classificação de risco Moody's, é considerado
por Hakim o principal problema enfrentado por Dilma no momento.
Mas ele e outros analistas ressaltam que nada indica que a presidente –
que esteve à frente do Conselho de Administração da empresa entre 2003 e 2010 –
tenha tido algum tipo de envolvimento ou soubesse dos casos de corrupção.
"Até o momento, não há evidência de que Dilma seja culpada de nada
além de má administração (no caso da Petrobras)", diz o cientista político
Matthew Taylor, pesquisador do Brazil Institute, órgão do Woodrow Wilson Center
e professor da American University, em Washington.
Taylor observa que, assim como no escândalo do Mensalão muitos dos
membros mais céticos da oposição diziam na época que o então presidente Lula
deveria saber do que ocorria, no caso da Petrobras é possível que muitos digam
o mesmo de Dilma, que seus laços com a empresa eram tão estreitos que ela
deveria saber do esquema de corrupção.
"Mas em uma grande organização como essa, é bem plausível que ela
simplesmente não tenha investigado mais profundamente o que poderia estar
ocorrendo", afirma.
"Até agora não há qualquer sugestão nos documentos que se conhece
de que Dilma seja culpada de qualquer comportamento criminoso", diz
Taylor.
3 – A oposição não tem interesse em um processo de impeachment
Segundo os analistas ouvidos pela BBC Brasil, a oposição não teria
condições e nem tem interesse em levar adiante um processo de impeachment.
"Não acho que o PSDB teria muito a ganhar. Além disso, precisaria
do apoio do PMDB e de outros partidos na coalizão do governo. E, francamente,
nenhum desses partidos gostaria de ver Dilma sofrendo um impeachment",
afirma Taylor.
"Eles têm muito a ganhar com uma Dilma enfraquecida", observa.
"Talvez seja melhor para a oposição simplesmente deixar Dilma mergulhada
na crise e deixar que ela tome as difíceis medidas de austeridade e ser
responsabilizada por elas."
4 – Apoio no Congresso
Dilma enfrenta dificuldades em sua relação com o Congresso e com a
própria base aliada, em um momento em que o PT e o PMDB, apesar de terem as
maiores bancadas, perderam cadeiras nas últimas eleições, que também foram
marcadas por uma maior fragmentação do Congresso.
"Uma das questões cruciais para Dilma é lutar contra a oposição que
há no Congresso ao plano de ajuste fiscal. Mas ela está em uma posição
enfraquecida, porque não é popular, o PT tem menos membros no Congresso, há
mais partidos pequenos", enumera Roett.
Apesar das dificuldades, os analistas ressaltam que a estrutura de apoio
de Dilma é muito mais forte do que a do ex-presidente Fernando Collor de Mello,
alvo de impeachment em 1992.
"Collor estava implementando políticas que eram de certa maneira
radicais, que iam contra a maioria dos eleitores, e estava fazendo isso em um
contexto em que seu partido tinha menos de 3% do Congresso", diz Taylor
5 – Dificuldades em toda a América Latina
A avaliação dos analistas é de que, apesar de graves, os atuais
problemas não são exclusividade do Brasil. Muitos países da América Latina
também enfrentam um período de escândalos e economia em queda.
"Não é como se o Brasil estivesse sozinho", observa Hakim.
Ele cita os casos de México, Venezuela, Peru, Chile e Argentina, onde os
presidentes também atravessam um momento de fraca popularidade.
"Se no Brasil a inflação chega a 7,3% nos últimos 12 meses, na
Argentina está em torno de 40%, e na Venezuela perto de 70%", diz Hakim.
"A confiança do investidor está em baixa em toda a América
Latina."
Exagero
Para Hakim, há um certo exagero quando se fala na possibilidade de impeachment
de Dilma.
"Ninguém falava em impeachment de Fernando Henrique Cardoso por
causa da crise do apagão. Ninguém falava em impeachment de Lula por causa do
Mensalão", lembra.
O analista reconhece que Dilma está enfrentando problemas em várias
frentes, mas afirma que esses problemas não são incomuns em governos com a
economia em baixa.
"Lembra quando todos falavam que o Brasil era um foguete em direção
à lua, que ninguém segurava o Brasil? Aquilo foi dramaticamente exagerado.
Agora, o suposto desastre enfrentado pelo Brasil também está sendo exagerado.
Pode estar prestes a enfrentar um pouco de turbulência, mas não se compara à
situação da Argentina ou da Venezuela", afirma Hakim.
Taylor diz que o escândalo da Petrobras o deixa "cautelosamente
otimista".
"Quando se pensa no Brasil e nas experiências da América Latina, em
quantos outros países você prenderia alguns dos mais importantes empresários e
consideraria a possibilidade de prender alguns dos mais importantes políticos?
E, mesmo eu não achando um cenário realista, a própria contemplação de
impeachment de uma maneira válida institucionalmente. Isso tudo aponta para a
força da democracia brasileira, não fraqueza."
Brasil,
28 de fevereiro de 2015
HÉLIO BARRETO DOS SANTOS FILHO
OAB SC 7487 DF 36606 OAPT 53040C
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